Elon Musk Suggests AI Could Pose 10 to 20 Percent Chance of Humanity's Destruction

Summary

• Elon Musk warns that AI has the potential to pose a threat to humanity in the future.
• He estimates a 10 to 20 percent chance of this scenario becoming a reality.
• Musk emphasizes the importance of teaching AI to prioritize truthfulness and curiosity.

Elon Musk recently addressed the risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI) during the "Great AI Debate" seminar at the Abundance Summit earlier this month. According to Business Insider, Musk acknowledged a small chance that AI could pose dangers to humanity, estimating it to be around 10 to 20 percent. Despite these concerns, Musk emphasized that the potential benefits of AI outweigh the risks, although he didn't provide specific details on how he arrived at these risk calculations.

"I think there's some chance that it will end humanity. I probably agree with Geoff Hinton that it's about 10 percent or 20 percent or something like that. I think that the probable positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario," Musk stated.

Musk's apprehensions about AI have been longstanding. In November last year, he expressed concerns about the possibility of AI turning malevolent. Despite advocating for regulations on AI, Musk launched xAI, a company aimed at advancing AI, positioning it as a competitor to OpenAI, a venture he co-founded.

At the Summit, Musk predicted that by 2030, AI would surpass human intelligence. While optimistic about the potential benefits of AI, he cautioned against potential negative consequences. Musk analogized the development of super-smart AI to raising an exceptionally intelligent child, emphasizing the importance of teaching AI to prioritize truthfulness and curiosity.

"You kind of grow an AGI. It's almost like raising a kid, but one that's like a super genius, like a God-like intelligence kid — and it matters how you raise the kid," Musk explained at the Silicon Valley event on March 19, referring to artificial general intelligence. "One of the things I think that's incredibly important for AI safety is to have a maximum sort of truth-seeking and curious AI."

Musk's strategy for ensuring AI safety is straightforward: ensuring that AI consistently tells the truth. He cautioned against teaching AI to deceive, as once it learns, it becomes difficult to control. Musk referenced a study suggesting that if AI learns to lie, conventional safety measures might become ineffective.

Musk's message underscores the importance of honesty in our interactions with AI for the sake of both its safety and ours. He believes that maintaining honesty is crucial when dealing with AI.